Top of main content
Dubai Skyline

Market Update - Markets bouncing on hopes of peak rates – will it last?

Market update
Fed
Bond
Inflation
USD

Market Update - Markets bouncing on hopes of peak rates – will it last?

Oct 6, 2022

  • Rate views continue to set the tone - not only for bond markets, but equity and currency markets too. In August, the Jackson Hole meeting, the rapid rate hikes and hawkish messaging from a long list from central banks caused a sell-off that led equities back to the June lows. But in recent days, hopes that rates could peak soon led to a jump in equities and bonds, and USD weakness. Extreme investor pessimism in stocks and short covering of big short positions in bonds market exacerbated the moves
  • We’ve seen this before: from June to August, markets bounced on premature hopes that the Fed would ‘pivot’ to a more dovish rate policy. Are markets being too hopeful again? In our view, the outlook for core inflation will determine the policy of the Fed. Given that core inflation is stickiest in services, labour markets are key. So it is no surprise the drop in employment intentions in the ISM manufacturing index, and the drop in job openings, caused Treasury yields to fall and rate hike expectations to come down. While markets just two weeks ago believed the Fed policy rate would peak at 4.67 per cent, they now think the Fed will only raise rates to 4.46 per cent
  • But the job markets are still tight, and the inflation dragon has not yet been slain. We remain in an uncomfortable waiting game and should continue to see two-way volatility. Economic data and statements from Fed speakers should cause markets to move up and down, until clear evidence of declining inflation allows equities to move up in a more sustainable fashion. But at least, this week’s episode shows that there is not just downside risk, but upside risk as well
  • With both equities and bonds being so closely linked to the rate view, we think hedge funds are the key diversifier, and we continue to overweight them. We also overweight investment grade bonds as they price in a lot of rate hikes. For stocks, the good news is that they seem fairly priced vs corporate bonds, and if markets get more comfortable about rate levels, price/earnings ratios should find support. But the problem is that optimism about peak rates is triggered by slowing growth, so earnings should slow. We thus continue to focus on quality stocks and maintain our defensive sector positioning. As for USD, we find it hard to become bullish on any other major currency, and the global growth outlook remains USD-supportive

The following may be subject to local requirements.

 

This is a marketing communication issued by HSBC Private Banking. This document does not constitute independent investment research under the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (‘MiFID’), or other relevant law or regulation, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its distribution. HSBC Private Banking is the principal private banking business of the HSBC Group. Private Banking may be carried out internationally by different HSBC legal entities according to local regulatory requirements. Different companies within HSBC Private Banking or the HSBC Group may provide the services listed in this document. Some services are not available in certain locations. Members of the HSBC Group may trade in products mentioned in this publication.

 

This document is provided to you for your information purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. The information contained within this document is intended for general circulation to HSBC Private Banking clients and it has not been prepared in light of your personal circumstances (including your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs) and does not constitute a personal recommendation, nor should it be relied upon as a substitute for the exercise of independent judgement. This document does not constitute and should not be construed as legal, tax or investment advice or a solicitation and/or recommendation of any kind from the Bank to you, nor as an offer or invitation from the Bank to you to subscribe to, purchase, redeem or sell any financial instruments, or to enter into any transaction with respect to such instruments. The content of this document may not be suitable for your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives, and the Bank does not make any representation with respect to the suitability or appropriateness to you of any financial instrument or investment strategy presented in this document.

 

If you have concerns about any investment or are uncertain about the suitability of an investment decision, you should contact your Relationship Manager or seek such financial, legal or tax advice from your professional advisers as appropriate.

 

Market data in this document is sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. While this information has been prepared in good faith including information from sources believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made by HSBC Private Banking or any part of the HSBC Group or by any of their respective officers, employees or agents as to or in relation to the accuracy or completeness of this document.

 

It is important to note that the capital value of, and income from, any investment may go down as well as up and you may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements, views and opinions expressed and estimates given constitute HSBC Private Banking’s best judgement at the time of publication, are solely expressed as general commentary and do not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of returns and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of other market participants and are subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from the forecasts/estimates.  When an investment is denominated in a currency other than your local or reporting currency, changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of that investment. There is no guarantee of positive trading performance.

 

Foreign securities carry particular risks, such as exposure to currency fluctuations, less developed or less efficient trading markets, political instability, a lack of company information, differing auditing and legal standards, volatility and, potentially, less liquidity.

 

Investment in emerging markets may involve certain additional risks, which may not be typically associated with investing in more established economies and/or securities markets. Such risks include (a) the risk of nationalization or expropriation of assets; (b) economic and political uncertainty; (c) less liquidity in so far of securities markets; (d) fluctuations in currency exchange rate; (e) higher rates of inflation; (f) less oversight by a regulator of local securities market; (g) longer settlement periods in so far as securities transactions and (h) less stringent laws in so far the duties of company officers and protection of Investors.

 

You should contact your Relationship Manager if you wish to enter into a transaction for an investment product. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the content of any document.

 

Some HSBC Offices listed may act only as representatives of HSBC Private Banking, and are therefore not permitted to sell products and services, or offer advice to customers. They serve as points of contact only. Further details are available on request.

 

In the United Kingdom, this document has been approved for distribution by HSBC UK Bank plc whose Private Banking office is located at 8 Cork Street, London W1S 3LJ and whose registered office is at 1 Centenary Square, Birmingham, B1 1HQ. HSBC UK Bank plc is registered in England under number 09928412.  Clients should be aware that the rules and regulations made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of investors, including the protection of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, do not apply to investment business undertaken with the non-UK offices of the HSBC Group. This publication is a Financial Promotion for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 and has been approved for distribution in the United Kingdom in accordance with the Financial Promotion Rules by HSBC UK Bank plc, which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.

 

In Guernsey, this material is distributed by HSBC Private Banking (C.I.) a division of HSBC Bank plc, Guernsey Branch which is licensed by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission for Banking, Insurance Intermediary and Investment Business. In Jersey, this material is issued by HSBC Private Banking (Jersey) which is a division of HSBC Bank plc, Jersey Branch: HSBC House, Esplanade, St. Helier, Jersey, JE1 1HS. HSBC Bank plc, Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission for Banking, General Insurance Mediation, Fund Services and Investment Business. HSBC Bank plc is registered in England and Wales, number 14259. Registered office 8 Canada Square, London, E14 5HQ. HSBC Bank plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.

 

In France, this material is distributed by HSBC Europe Continental. HSBC Private Banking is the private banking department of the HSBC Group in France. HSBC Europe Continental is subject to approval and control by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution [Prudential Control and Resolution Authority] as a credit entity. HSBC Private Banking department of HSBC Continental Europe, Public Limited Company with share capital of 491,155,980.00 €- SIREN 775 670 284 Trade and Companies Register of Paris Bank and Insurance Intermediary registered with the Organisme pour le Registre des Intermédiaires en Assurances [Organisation for the Register of Insurance Intermediaries] under no. 07 005 894 (www.orias.fr) - Intra-community VAT number: FR 707 756 702 84. HSBC Private Banking - HSBC Europe Continental – Registered office: 38, avenue Kléber 75116 Paris- FRANCE- Tel. +33 (0) 1 49 52 20 00.

  

In Switzerland, this material is distributed by HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) SA, a bank regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, whose office is located at Quai des Bergues 9-17, 1201 Genève, Switzerland. This document does not constitute independent financial research, and has not been prepared in accordance with the Swiss Bankers Association’s “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research”, or any other relevant body of law.

 

In Abu Dhabi Global Markets (ADGM) by HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, ADGM Branch, 3526, Al Maqam Tower, ADGM, Abu Dhabi, is regulated by the ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA). Content in this material is directed at Professional Clients only as defined by the FSRA and should not be acted upon by any other person.

 

In Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) by HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) S.A., DIFC Branch, P.O. Box 506553 Dubai, United Arab Emirates, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is permitted to only deal with  Professional Clients as defined by the DFSA.

 

In South Africa, this material is distributed by HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) SA’s Representative Office approved by the South African Reserve Board (SARB) under registration no. 00252 and authorized as a financial services provider (FSP) for the provision of Advice and Intermediary Services by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority of South Africa (FSCA) under registration no. 49434. The Representative Office has its registered address at 2 Exchange Square, 85 Maude Street, Sandown, Sandton.

 

In Bahrain and Qatar, this material is distributed by the respective branches of HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, which is locally regulated by the respective local country Central Banks and lead regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.

 

In Lebanon, this material is handed out by HSBC Financial Services (Lebanon) S.A.L. (“HFLB”), licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as a financial intermediation company Sub N°12/8/18 to carry out Advising and Arranging activities, having its registered address at Centre Ville 1341 Building, 4th floor, Patriarche Howayek Street, Beirut, Lebanon, P.O.Box Riad El Solh 9597.

 

In Hong Kong and Singapore, THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT HAVE NOT BEEN REVIEWED OR ENDORSED BY ANY REGULATORY AUTHORITY IN HONG KONG OR SINGAPORE. HSBC Private Banking is a division of Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. In Hong Kong, this document has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited in the conduct of its Hong Kong regulated business. In Singapore, the document is distributed by the Singapore Branch of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. Both Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited and Singapore Branch of Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited are part of the HSBC Group. This document is not intended for and must not be distributed to retail investors in Hong Kong and Singapore. The recipient(s) should qualify as professional investor(s) as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance in Hong Kong or accredited investor(s) or institutional investor(s) or other relevant person(s) as defined under the Securities and Futures Act in Singapore. Please contact a representative of The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited or the Singapore Branch of The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited respectively in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report.

 

Some of the products are only available to professional investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance in Hong Kong / accredited investor(s), institutional investor(s) or other relevant person(s) as defined under the Securities and Futures Act in Singapore. Please contact your Relationship Manager for more details.

 

The specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any specific persons were not taken into consideration in the writing of this document. To the extent we are required to conduct a suitability assessment in Hong Kong where this is permitted by cross border rules depending on your place of domicile or incorporation, we will take reasonable steps to ensure the suitability of the solicitation and/or recommendation. In all other cases, you are responsible for assessing and satisfying yourself that any investment or other dealing to be entered into is in your best interest and is suitable for you.

 

In all cases, we recommend that you make investment decisions only after having carefully reviewed the relevant investment product and offering documentation, HSBC’s Standard Terms and Conditions, the “Risk Disclosure Statement” detailed in the Account Opening Booklet, and all notices, risk warnings and disclaimers contained in or accompanying such documents and having understood and accepted the nature, risks of and the terms and conditions governing the relevant transaction and any associated margin requirements. In addition to any suitability assessment made in Hong Kong by HSBC (if any), you should exercise your own judgment in deciding whether or not a particular product is appropriate for you, taking into account your own circumstances (including, without limitation, the possible tax consequences, legal requirements and any foreign exchange restrictions or exchange control requirements which you may encounter under the laws of the countries of your citizenship, residence or domicile and which may be relevant to the subscription, holding or disposal of any investment) and, where appropriate, you should consider taking professional advice including as to your legal, tax or accounting position. Please note that this information is neither intended to aid in decision making for legal or other consulting questions, nor should it be the basis of any such decision. If you require further information on any product or product class or the definition of Financial Products, please contact your Relationship Manager.

 

In Luxembourg, this material is distributed by HSBC Private Banking (Luxembourg) SA, which is located at 16, boulevard d’Avranches, L-1160 Luxembourg and is regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (“CSSF”).

 

In the United States, HSBC Private Banking offers banking products and services through HSBC Bank USA, N.A. – Member FDIC and provides securities and brokerage products and services through HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., member NYSE/ FINRA/SIPC, and an affiliate of HSBC Bank USA, N.A.

 

Investment products are: Not a deposit or other obligation of the bank or any affiliates; Not FDIC insured or insured by any federal government agency of the United States; Not guaranteed by the bank or any of its affiliates; and are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal invested.

 

Australia

If you are receiving this document in Australia, the products and services are provided by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Any information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account your personal needs and objectives nor whether any investment is appropriate. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited is not a registered tax agent. It does not purport to, nor does it, give or provide any taxation advice or services whatsoever. You should not rely on the information provided in the documents for ascertaining your tax liabilities, obligations or entitlements and should consult with a registered tax agent to determine your personal tax obligations.

 

Where your location of residence differs from that of the HSBC entity where your account is held, please refer to the disclaimer at https://www.privatebanking.hsbc.com/disclaimer/cross-border-disclosure for disclosure of cross-border considerations regarding your location of residence.

 

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC UK Bank plc.

 

A complete list of private banking entities is available on our website, https://www.privatebanking.hsbc.com.

 

©Copyright HSBC 2024

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Listening to what you have to say about services matters to us. It's easy to share your ideas, stay informed and join the conversation.