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Market Update - ECB holds rates, but September action remains wide open

Market update
ECB
EUR
rate cuts
Market Update
Inflation

Market Update - ECB holds rates, but September action remains wide open

Jul 18, 2024

  • The ECB held its main deposit rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent, a decision which was widely expected by the market. Last month, a 25bps policy rate cut was announced, however the ECB’s upwardly revised inflation forecasts and removal of the easing bias in the June press conference suggested a second consecutive rate cut was unlikely today
  • Ms Lagarde had already wished investors “a good summer” at the close of the June ECB meeting, bracing us perhaps for a rather uneventful meeting today. The use of “data dependency” and “meeting by meeting approach” in the press statement signalled the Governing Council will be eager to await and sift through fresh data releases in the course of the next few months rather than pre-commit to a certain path. Until the next meeting is held on 12th September, two new inflation, wage and productivity reports will be available, all of which will likely influence the ECB in their next decision
  • The ECB characterised risks to growth as tilted to the downside, citing geopolitics and trade policy among other risks. Its assessment of the June inflation release characterised most measures as stable or edging down in June, however caution was also expressed about the elevated domestic price pressures and services inflation
  • The quote of the day however is arguably Ms Lagarde’s characterisation that “the question of what to do in September is wide open.” Prior to the meeting, the swaps market was pricing in an 80 per cent chance of a September cut, so a lack in pushback against these expectations led to a rather muted market reaction. The possibility of a further rate cut in September meant EUR weakened at the margin, trading at 1.0905 at time of writing whereas government yields fell by 1-2bps for core markets and 2-4bps in the periphery. European equities held on to the gains that were recorded prior to the ECB meeting with the Stoxx600 index up +0.4 per cent led by communication services, energy, utilities and consumer sectors
  • Our base case scenario remains unchanged for two more 25bps rate cuts in 2024 (September, December), although it is worth highlighting the market might be a bit overconfident in its 80 per cent implied rate cut probability in the next meeting given the ECB effectively kept maximum optionality today. The two sets of wage and price data will ultimately determine the timing and pace of further cuts, and even though it might be a closer-than-expected call, investors should take comfort that the next move is ultimately another policy cut. This supports our negative bias towards EUR (we have a 1.05 target) and reinforces our positive view on European credit. We are neutral on European equities, expressing a relative preference for the UK over Eurozone yet maintain our high conviction theme on “Magnificent Europeans,” namely large cap quality companies with international revenues

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