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China Perspectives - Onshore risk appetite continues to improve despite mixed signals

Regional Outlook
China Equity
China Perspectives
A-SHARE
China

China Perspectives - Onshore risk appetite continues to improve despite mixed signals

Sep 9, 2025

  • China equity has out-performed MSCI World and US indices since end of June, and this was led by the onshore A-share market instead of Hang Seng Index for a change. Risk appetite of onshore retail investors played a part in this outperformance and the abundance in household savings have started to flow into risk assets on the margin, as shown by rising equity mutual fund issuance and surging margin financing balance
  • On the other hand, we see mixed factors affecting the equity market investor sentiment. Another 90-day truce in Sino-US tariff war and the talk of a potential leadership summit suggests that near term geopolitical risk overhang on China stocks is contained. In the meantime, policies signal remained positive. The government has announced that the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Party Congress will be held in October and will focus on reviewing the 15th Five Year Plan – an agenda that is biased towards growth and reform
  • Yet the economy appears to have softened after a strong H1, with July growth in investment, production and consumption missing expectation. These may point to waning impact of export frontloading and consumer durable goods subsidies, highlighting the importance of continued fiscal, structural and monetary support to address insufficient demand
  • Reported earnings of CSI300 company show 6.8 per cent YoY growth in H1, with sharp sectoral divergence. IT, industrials and consumer sectors led performance, while energy and property continued to face substantial pressure. We maintain a constructive view on A-share market and broader China equity, but focusing on the AI empowered technology leaders and policy-supported consumer winners

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