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US Perspectives - US Equity Review: June

Regional Outlook
This insight is about
Equities
S&P 500
Inflation
US Perspectives
AI

US Perspectives - US Equity Review: June

by Jose Rasco, CIO, Americas, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth & Michael Zervos, Investment Strategy Analyst, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth
Jun 30, 2025

Highlights: US equity markets have held up well so far this year and have posted strong gains in the month of June, supported by better trade headlines, clearer policy signals, and reduced geopolitical uncertainties. Corporate earnings remain resilient, with S&P 500 earnings growth expected to be a solid 5 per cent for the second quarter, despite downward estimate revisions. If realised, this would mark the eighth straight quarter of yoy earnings gains.

  • According to a FactSet survey, inflation is still being discussed, though less frequently than in prior years. About 228 companies referenced it on recent earnings calls, particularly in sectors like Consumer Staples and Materials
  • Market volatility could stay elevated as the Trump administration’s trade and fiscal agenda unfolds. Tariffs and trade deals are already in motion, while tax reforms and deregulation across key sectors like Financials and Tech are expected to follow soon
  • One policy proposal drawing attention is Section 899, which could raise US tax rates on investors from countries with digital or extraterritorial tax regimes targeting US companies. If passed, it could shift global capital flows and override treaty protections. But for now, Secretary Bessent has asked Congress to remove this proposal from the budget
  • In the longer-term, we remain constructive on US equities. The combination of solid earnings, AI-driven productivity, and structural themes like nearshoring and re-industrialisation continue to support our overweight on US equities

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