CIO Academy: Weathering the storm: A brighter outlook for private equity?
Highlights: Like other investors, private equity has navigated a turbulent first half of 2025, with strong early-year momentum dampened by tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and slower exits. Fundraising and deal flow have softened, yet leading GPs continue to generate decent returns in resilient sectors such as technology, healthcare, and services. Amid liquidity constraints GPs have adopted a wide array of alternate strategies, including secondaries, NAV financing, and co-investments, to navigate exit challenges. Also, evergreen fund structures are democratising private markets beyond institutional investors. For savvy investors, this environment presents a rare window to secure high-quality assets at compelling valuations—by aligning with top-tier managers, deploying selectively, and positioning portfolios for upside as confidence and market activity rebound.
- 2025 began with strong PE momentum, continuing 2024’s rebound in dealmaking and exits. But the 2 April “Liberation Day” tariff announcements and unpredictable US trade policy slowed deal activity—Q2 deal value down 15.3 per cent qoq and marginally yoy. Fundraising dropped 12 per cent qoq and nearly 30 per cent yoy; the number of funds raising money is down ~50 per cent yoy. Exit routes (M&A, IPOs) remain subdued, leading to longer holding periods and lower distributions
- Yet, top GPs continue to create value, leveraging deep sector expertise in resilient areas such as technology, healthcare, and services—achieving notable MOICs and IRRs despite market headwinds. Historical data show PE often delivers strong post-downturn returns through lower entry valuations and subsequent macro rebounds
- In this environment of lower exits and distributions, GPs and LPs are turning to creative financing strategies to manage liquidity constraints. Secondary transactions are surging, enabling investors to rebalance portfolios or realise gains without waiting for fund maturities. GP-led secondaries and NAV financing are helping managers return capital, while co-investments offer lower fees, targeted exposure, and greater control. Meanwhile, evergreen fund structures are expanding access to private markets for high-net-worth investors, offering continuous fundraising, faster capital deployment, and periodic liquidity—though careful GP selection remains critical
- The uncertain macro environment also presents opportunities here. Lower valuations, sectoral tailwinds, and a build-up of dry powder position well-aligned portfolios to benefit when confidence returns and deal activity rebounds. The key is manager selection and selective deployment