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Monthly View - July 2026

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This insight is about
Fed
IPO
GIC
Diversification
USD

A new Fed chair, a stronger dollar - Monthly View - July 2026

by Willem Sels, Global Chief Investment Officer, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth
Jun 26, 2026

  • We turn bullish on the US dollar after the Fed removed prior dovish guidance and tilted toward fighting inflation. This adds to the support for USD coming from the resilient US economy and investor demand for US assets
  • Our USD upgrade leads us to move EUR and GBP to a bearish view, while we cut AUD, SGD and RMB from bullish to neutral. With some more support for USD, we now also see less scope for EM local currency bonds to outperform global high yield. Hence, we downgrade EM LC from mild overweight to neutral and upgrade global HY from mild underweight to neutral
  • Gold likely range-trades near-term on dollar strength, but portfolio diversification needs and central bank buying should still drive upside for gold by year end
  • In equities, the focus is squarely on the mega IPOs, with some investors flagging stretched valuations. But most S&P500 companies are generating strong earnings at reasonable valuations. We would therefore expect any IPO- or Middle East-related volatility to be mild and a longer-term buying opportunity. We stay constructive on AI-driven investment and productivity gains, captured as broadly as possible across sectors and geographies

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