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FX and Commodities Monthly Insights - August 2026
Aug 6, 2026
- In July, USD was volatile but softer in July. A sharp non-farm payrolls miss and the largest monthly drop in US CPI in six years initially weighed on the USD. However, an oil spike driven by Middle East developments and hawkish Fed rhetoric early in the month reasserted the “firm USD” narrative ahead of the July FOMC. Then, USD gave back ground after the meeting, as markets perceived a lack of clarity in the Fed’s messaging
- In G10, NZD, AUD, CAD and GBP were among the best performers, posting the strongest gains in early July as global risk sentiment improved on signs of easing geopolitical tensions at the time. JPY was also among the best performing currencies last month as Japan and the US conducted a joint intervention in late July, triggering a sharp selloff in USD/JPY. Meanwhile, CHF was the weakest-performing G10 currency over the month
- In EM, KRW was by far the best performer versus USD, gaining more than 7.5 per cent. INR, IDR, TRY and ZAR each fell by more than 0.5 per cent against USD.
- Our medium- to long-term views are unchanged from June:
- G10: We remain bullish USD, particularly versus EUR and GBP, where we remain bearish. We keep a neutral view on the other G10 currencies
- EM: We remain constructive on KRW, but cautious (and therefore bearish) on INR, IDR and TRY
- Commodities: We remain bullish gold, despite its weakest year-to-date performance since 2015, and we maintain a neutral view on silver and oil