FX and Commodities Monthly Insights - November 2025

Highlights:

• The US government remained under shutdown delayed data releases adding to uncertainty around Fed’s rate trajectory, although it delivered the widely expected 25bps cut last month. Despite this, the US dollar appreciated by approximately 2 per cent in October, as political instability in Europe and Japan diverted attention from the US. The agreement US-China reached at the end of the month also provided another boost to the greenback

• Neutral on USD: We maintain a neutral stance on USD but anticipate slight weakness in the coming months. The lockdown has obscured the cyclical outlook in the US, yet the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts, which could exert downward pressure on the dollar. If forthcoming data disappoints, additional negative pressure may ensue. Conversely, a more hawkish or cautious approach from the Fed, coupled with unexpectedly positive cyclical data, could bolster the greenback. The Supreme Court hearing presents dual risks to USD, with a greater likelihood of downside risk

G10 Currencies:

• With diminishing political uncertainties in France, EUR may experience a rebound in the coming months. Although fiscal concerns persist due to the pending budget agreement, overall reduced uncertainties, combined with a narrowing yield as the Fed cuts further while the ECB remains steady, could propel EUR higher. We anticipate EUR to outperform USD, GBP, and CHF.
• AUD should be supported by resilient cyclical factors, ample fiscal capacity, and a favourable yield differential, strengthened by a cautious RBA and a slightly risk-on market sentiment
• We hold a bearish outlook on CAD, as cyclical data and monetary guidance appear unfavourable; but maintain a neutral stance on GBP, JPY, CHF, NZD. We favour SGD in developed Asian markets

EM outlook:

• EM currencies have benefitted from a modest improvement in risk appetite in October. However, we remain selective, favouring KRW while exercising caution with TRY

Commodity Space:

• Bullish on Gold: We maintain a bullish outlook on gold due to its diversification benefits, despite recent pullbacks and strong year-to-date performance. The fundamentals remain supportive, and with persistent uncertainties, suggesting further upside. However, given the extraordinary performance in September and October, we anticipate a slower pace of price increase following a brief consolidation period
• Neutral on Silver and Oil: We remain neutral on silver due to its higher volatility and exposure to the global industrial sector, as well as on oil due to global concerns and increased supply