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US Perspectives: US Equity Monthly for March

Regional Outlook
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Perspectives
Equities
US
Earnings
AI

US Perspectives: US Equity Monthly for March

by Jose Rasco, CIO, Americas, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth & Michael Zervos, Investment Strategist, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth
Mar 31, 2026

Highlights: We remain overweight on US equities as the US continues to offer superior earnings growth, AI leadership, durable revenue expansion, strong corporate balance sheets, and a stimulative fiscal backdrop. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provides new research and production tax credits, improved depreciation schedules, more expansive tax cuts, and higher domestic investment incentives that should boost production and investment as well as consumer spending. Earnings momentum remains strong as S&P 500 earnings are projected to accelerate from last year’s historic growth rates.

  • In the US, the earnings backdrop remains incredibly strong. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 17 per cent yoy in 2026, according to FactSet as of 27th March, providing fundamental support. Importantly, earnings leadership is broadening beyond Technology, with Communication services, Utilities, and Financials all expected to deliver solid growth. Sectors such as Industrials and Consumer discretionary are projected to achieve high single-digit earnings growth, pointing to continued economic resilience, while defensive sectors including Healthcare and Consumer staples are expected to deliver more modest gains
  • Despite recent market volatility, the key support for US equity markets continues to come from technology and AI-related investment, which is driving both revenue growth and productivity gains across sectors. This is complemented by continued infrastructure buildout in areas such as data centers and energy, supporting the broader economic activity
  • The AI capex cycle remains durable too as the US leads in artificial intelligence development and deployment. Capital expenditures across semiconductors, hyperscalers, software, and infrastructure remain elevated, supporting both near-term earnings and longer-term productivity gains. Productivity gains support margins as technology-driven efficiency improvements are beginning to translate into margin resilience, reinforcing corporate profitability even in a restrictive rate environment

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