CIO Academy - Navigating beyond the US dollar: a G10 diversification framework
Highlights: Global portfolios have become increasingly concentrated in US assets over the past decade, creating significant exposure to a single currency and market. At the same time, clients are asking valid questions about America’s fiscal position, current account dynamics, and equity valuations. So, many investors are looking at FX diversification, either to deal with that concentration or they worry about gradual de-dollarisation. This report sets out a structured, two-stage analytical framework to identify the most compelling non-USD opportunities within the G10 universe for investors considering diversification, with a horizon of over six months. We conclude that CHF, AUD, EUR and CAD can be interesting and practical diversifiers, where strong macro settings and investable depth can make local assets attractive, and where local currency appreciation potential may further enhance total returns for foreign investors.
- Stage 1: The Macro Mix: We map all G10 economies across three primary dimensions, with the objective of identifying where the structural macro environment is genuinely supportive, before adding fiscal indicators to the mix
- Pure macro winners: Building resilience in domestic energy infrastructure will be crucial – from power grids to investing in small nuclear reactors – to have affordable and abundant energy. Digital and physical infrastructure therefore offer attractive opportunities for investors
- Stage 2: The Practical Filter: Macro quality is a necessary but insufficient condition for an appropriate allocation. As a second step, we apply a practical liquidity and market-depth filter to the Stage 1 results
- Final investable allocations: Switzerland, Australia, the Eurozone and Canada. After filtering the macro leaders for capital market depth, liquidity, and execution practicality, these four regions emerge as the optimal tactical destinations for investment flows